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Learning Goal
Part of: Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions — 3 of 3 cluster items
Analyze decisions and strategies using probability
HSS.MD.B.7
**HSS.MD.B.7**: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
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HSS.MD.B.7: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
What you'll learn
- Analyze a real decision by identifying the strategies, uncertain outcomes, probabilities, and payoffs
- Use expected value to compare strategies, and recognize when risk or error-cost asymmetry should modify the expected-value choice
- Apply conditional probability to evaluate testing decisions, computing P(condition | positive) and explaining the base-rate effect
- Analyze a strategic timing decision (pulling the hockey goalie) by comparing each strategy's net effect on the probability of winning
- Communicate a probability-based recommendation that states its assumptions and limitations
Prerequisites
- Calculate the expected value of a random variable
- hss-md-b-5a
- hss-md-b-5b
- Understand conditional probability
Slides
Interactive presentations perfect for visual learners • 2 slide decks
Slide Video
Watch narrated slides play like a video lesson • Narrated slide playback