Lesson Plan

Make a prediction from a given linear model and judge whether it can be trusted and how precisely to report it

Predict in both directions — given $x$ find $y$, and given $y$ find $x$ — by substituting into the model and by tracing the trend line

Interpret the slope of a model as a rate of change in the data's own units, and the intercept as a starting value when $x = 0$ lies near the data

Compute the residual, actual minus predicted, and interpret its sign

Distinguish interpolation from extrapolation, and identify where a model stops making sense in context

Report a prediction at a precision the data supports

S 506. Recognize that when a statistical model is used, model values typically differ from actual values S 705. Recognize that part of the power of statistical modeling comes from looking at regularity in the differences between actual values and model values F 504. Attend to the difference between a function modeling a situation and the reality of the situation F 701. Compare actual values and the values of a modeling function to judge model fit and compare models S 505. Recognize that when data summaries are reported in the real world, results are often rounded and must be interpreted as having appropriate precision S 502. Manipulate data from tables and charts S 602. Interpret and use information from tables and charts, including two-way frequency tables