Back to Exercise: Assess fit by analyzing residuals

Exercises: Assess Fit by Analyzing Residuals

Work through each section in order. A residual is observed minus predicted: positive when the data point is ABOVE the model, negative when below. Keep the sign. When reading a residual plot, remember the key idea: random scatter around zero means a GOOD fit, while a clear pattern (a curve or a fan) means the model is wrong.

Grade 10·20 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·standard·hss-id-b-6b
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A

Warm-Up: What Is a Residual?

These problems review the residual definition and its sign.

1.

A function is fitted to data. For one data point, the observed value is 1414 and the model's predicted value is 1717. What is the residual at this point?

2.

A line y=0.10x+20y = 0.10x + 20 models a phone bill, where xx is minutes used. At x=50x = 50 minutes a customer was actually charged $26\text{\char"0024}26. The model predicts 0.10(50)+20=$250.10(50) + 20 = \text{\char"0024}25. What is the residual (observed - predicted) for this customer?

3.

A student builds a residual plot and expects it to look just like the original scatter plot of the data. Why is that expectation wrong?

B

Fluency Practice

Compute residuals and read residual plots.

A scatter plot with a fitted line; a dashed vertical segment marks the residual between one data point and the line.
1.

The scatter plot below shows data with a fitted line. For the highlighted point, the observed value is 3030 and the line predicts 3434 at that xx. What is the residual (observed - predicted)?

2.

A line y^=2x+5\hat{y} = 2x + 5 is fitted to data. At x=4x = 4 the observed value is 1111. Compute the residual (observed - predicted) at this point.

3.

You have these residuals at the given xx-values: (1,+2)(1, +2), (2,1)(2, -1), (3,+3)(3, +3), (4,2)(4, -2). To build the residual plot, where does the point for x=3x = 3 go relative to the zero line?

A residual plot with points scattered randomly above and below a dashed horizontal zero line, showing no pattern.
4.

The residual plot below shows residuals scattered randomly around the zero line with no clear pattern. What does this say about the fit of the model?

5.

A residual plot shows a clear U-shaped pattern: the residuals are positive at the left and right ends and negative in the middle. What is the most likely problem, and what should you do?

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