Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events
Teacher tools for this standard
Lesson Plan · Guided Notes · Exit Ticket · Re-teach · Homework
Teacher tools for this standard
Lesson Plan · Guided Notes · Exit Ticket · Re-teach · Homework
- Lesson Plan →Objectives, pacing and practice, built from this lesson's brief.
- Guided Notes →One page your students fill in and keep.
- Exit Ticket →Three items at the end of class. No student accounts.
- Re-teach →After an exit ticket: who missed what, and what to do tomorrow.
- Homework →Assign practice; it grades itself.
7.SP.C.7 -- Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
7.SP.C.7a -- Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
7.SP.C.7b -- Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
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7.SP.C.7 -- Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
7.SP.C.7a -- Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
7.SP.C.7b -- Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
What you'll learn
- Define a probability model as an assignment of probabilities to all possible outcomes of a chance process
- State the two requirements of a probability model: each probability is between 0 and 1, and all probabilities sum to 1
- Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probabilities to all outcomes
- Use a uniform model to compute the probability of an event (a subset of outcomes)
- Develop a non-uniform probability model from observed frequency data
- Compare modeled probabilities to observed frequencies and explain discrepancies
Slides
Step through the lesson, or watch it as a narrated video
Probability models
✓ Start herePractice
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