Lesson Plan

Define a probability model as an assignment of probabilities to all possible outcomes of a chance process

State the two requirements of a probability model: each probability is between 0 and 1, and all probabilities sum to 1

Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probabilities to all outcomes

Use a uniform model to compute the probability of an event (a subset of outcomes)

Develop a non-uniform probability model from observed frequency data

Compare modeled probabilities to observed frequencies and explain discrepancies

7.SP.C.7

7.SP.C.7 -- Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

7.SP.C.7a -- Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.

7.SP.C.7b -- Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?