Back to Analyze decisions and strategies using probability — Problem 1 · Task Set 34

Exercises: Analyze Decisions and Strategies Using Probability

Work through each section in order. For testing problems, build the two-way table over the stated population and compute the decision-relevant quantity by counting. Remember the difference between a test's accuracy P(positive | disease) and the decision-relevant P(disease | positive). For strategy problems, account for how a choice changes ALL of the probabilities, not just the one you want. Write explanation answers in complete sentences and name your assumptions.

Grade 12·20 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-md-b-7

Work through problems with immediate feedback

Warm-Up: Tools You Already Have

These problems review expected value and conditional probability, the tools this lesson combines.

A game has expected value $\text{\char"0024}2$ per play. Which statement best describes what the expected value tells you?

Over many plays, your average gain per play tends toward $\text{\char"0024}2$ ; it does not guarantee the result of any single play.

You will gain exactly $\text{\char"0024}2$ every time you play.

Your largest possible single-play gain is $\text{\char"0024}2$ .

The probability of winning is $2$ .