Back to Analyze decisions and strategies using probability — Problem 3 · Task Set 34

Exercises: Analyze Decisions and Strategies Using Probability

Work through each section in order. For testing problems, build the two-way table over the stated population and compute the decision-relevant quantity by counting. Remember the difference between a test's accuracy P(positive | disease) and the decision-relevant P(disease | positive). For strategy problems, account for how a choice changes ALL of the probabilities, not just the one you want. Write explanation answers in complete sentences and name your assumptions.

Grade 12·20 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-md-b-7
Work through problems with immediate feedback
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Fluency Practice

Compute the decision-relevant quantity in each problem.

1.

Using the table from the previous problem: 9999 true positives and 9999 false positives test positive, for 198198 positives in all. What is P(diseasepositive)P(\text{disease} \mid \text{positive}), written as a decimal?