Back to Distinguish correlation from causation — Problem 4 · Task Set 11

Exercises: Distinguish Correlation from Causation

Work through each section in order. For each scenario, separate two different claims: a CORRELATION claim ("the two variables move together") from a CAUSATION claim ("one variable produces a change in the other"). When a correlation is not causal, name the most plausible alternative explanation - reverse causation, a lurking (common) variable, or coincidence - and identify the lurking variable when one exists. Write explanations in complete sentences.

Grade 9·21 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-id-c-9

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Fluency: Classify the Claim

Decide whether each statement is a correlation claim or a causation claim, and apply the definitions.

Researchers find that stress levels and poor sleep are correlated. A student insists, "This shows stress causes poor sleep." Why can the student not be sure of the direction of causation from the correlation alone?

A correlation is symmetric and carries no direction; poor sleep could just as plausibly cause stress (reverse causation).

Because the variable named first always causes the one named second.

Because stress and sleep cannot possibly be related.

Because the correlation must be a coincidence.