Back to Decide if a model is consistent with data — Problem 2 · Task Set 13

Exercises: Decide if a Model Is Consistent with Data Using Simulation

Work through each section in order. A "model" is an assumed chance mechanism (for example, "this coin lands heads with probability 0.5"). To decide if data is consistent with a model, assume the model is true, simulate the data-generating process many times, build the simulated distribution, and see how often the model produces a result as extreme as the one observed. Remember: a surprising result is EVIDENCE to question a model, never proof the model is false; and an ordinary result never proves a model true.

Grade 10·22 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-ic-a-2

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Fluency Practice

Apply the simulation framework: device, trial, statistic, repetitions, and reading distributions.

A spinner model claims red comes up with probability $0.3$ . To simulate using a random-digit table (digits $0$ – $9$ ), which assignment of digits correctly matches the model's probability for "red"?

Digits 0, 1, 2 = red; digits 3–9 = not red.

Digit 0 = red; digits 1–9 = not red.

Digits 0–4 = red; digits 5–9 = not red.

Any single digit = red, the rest = not red, since the device does not matter.