Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability
Lesson Plan
Evaluate and compare strategies using expected values
Goals / Objectives
Model each of two or more competing strategies as a payoff or cost distribution
Compute the expected value (expected cost or expected payoff) of each strategy
Compare the strategies and recommend one based on expected value, stating whether lower or higher is better
Perform a sensitivity analysis: recompute the comparison under different reasonable probabilities and find the break-even probability where the recommendation changes
Explain that expected value is the primary criterion while risk tolerance can justify a different choice
Standards
HSS.MD.B.5.b
HSS.MD.B.5.b: Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident. HSS.MD.B.5: (+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
Academic Vocabulary
Not in our source material
Materials
Remediation
Enrichment
Accommodations
Not in our source material