Lesson Plan

Identify conditional-probability statements in everyday language, recognizing phrases such as "given that," "if you are," and "among those who"

Explain, in plain words, why P(A | B) and P(B | A) are generally different, using the lung-cancer/smoker comparison

Describe independence in everyday terms ("knowing one tells you nothing about the other") and give examples and non-examples

Translate real situations - weather, sports, health, advertising - into informal conditional-probability and independence statements

Critique everyday probabilistic claims that confuse the direction of conditioning or wrongly assume independence

HSS.CP.A.5

HSS.CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.