Lesson Plan

Define experimental probability as the relative frequency of an event observed in actual trials

Compute experimental probability from collected data: P(event) = (number of times event occurred)/(total number of trials)

Explain what "long-run relative frequency" means and why more trials produce more reliable estimates

Predict approximate relative frequencies given a theoretical probability

Compare experimental results to theoretical probabilities and explain sources of discrepancy

Understand that experimental probability approaches theoretical probability as the number of trials increases

7.SP.C.6

7.SP.C.6 -- Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.