Back to Exercise: Develop a theoretical probability distribution

Exercises: Develop a Theoretical Probability Distribution and Find Its Expected Value

Work through each section in order. Show your work where indicated. When you build a probability, separate "the probability of one specific sequence" from "the number of arrangements" that produce that result. Keep fractions over a common denominator so your sum-to-1 check is easy to read.

Grade 11·24 problems·~45 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-md-a-3
Work through problems with immediate feedback
A

Recall / Warm-Up

1.

On a multiple-choice test each question has four choices and a guesser is correct with
probability 14\frac{1}{4}. The questions are independent. What is the probability of getting
the first two specific questions both correct?

2.

A student guesses on every question of a five-question test where each question has four
equally likely choices. Let XX be the number of questions answered correctly. Which statement
correctly describes the model?

3.

How many different ways are there to choose which 3 of the 5 questions are the correct ones?
That is, evaluate (53)\binom{5}{3}.

B

Fluency Practice

1.

For the five-question guessing test (P(correct)=14P(\text{correct}) = \frac{1}{4}), which expression
correctly gives P(X=2)P(X = 2), the probability of exactly 2 correct?

2.

For the five-question guessing test, compute P(X=2)=(52)(14)2(34)3P(X = 2) = \binom{5}{2}\left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^2\left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^3.
Write your answer as a fraction over a denominator of 10241024.

3.

For the five-question guessing test, compute P(X=3)=(53)(14)3(34)2P(X = 3) = \binom{5}{3}\left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^3\left(\frac{3}{4}\right)^2.
Write your answer as a fraction over a denominator of 10241024.

4.

The full developed distribution for the five-question guessing test is shown below.

kk012345
P(X=k)P(X=k)2431024\frac{243}{1024}4051024\frac{405}{1024}2701024\frac{270}{1024}901024\frac{90}{1024}151024\frac{15}{1024}11024\frac{1}{1024}

Add the six numerators to verify the distribution is valid. What is the sum of the numerators?

5.

Using the distribution table above, compute the expected number correct
E(X)=kP(X=k)E(X) = \sum k \cdot P(X=k) for the five-question guessing test. Give a decimal.

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