Back to Distinguish correlation from causation — Problem 3 · Task Set 11

Exercises: Distinguish Correlation from Causation

Work through each section in order. For each scenario, separate two different claims: a CORRELATION claim ("the two variables move together") from a CAUSATION claim ("one variable produces a change in the other"). When a correlation is not causal, name the most plausible alternative explanation - reverse causation, a lurking (common) variable, or coincidence - and identify the lurking variable when one exists. Write explanations in complete sentences.

Grade 9·21 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-id-c-9

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Fluency: Classify the Claim

Decide whether each statement is a correlation claim or a causation claim, and apply the definitions.

A meteorologist notes that ice-cream sales are strongly correlated with the number of drownings at the beach each week. She uses ice-cream sales to help predict busy weeks for lifeguards. Is this a legitimate use of the correlation, even though ice cream does not cause drownings?

Yes - a correlation can be used for prediction even when it is not causal; both track summer heat, so high ice-cream sales flag high-risk weeks.

No - if a correlation is not causal it is worthless and cannot be used for anything.

Yes, because this proves ice-cream sales cause drownings.

No, because correlations can never be used to predict.