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Back to Decide if a model is consistent with data — Problem 3 · Task Set 13

Exercises: Decide if a Model Is Consistent with Data Using Simulation

Work through each section in order. A "model" is an assumed chance mechanism (for example, "this coin lands heads with probability 0.5"). To decide if data is consistent with a model, assume the model is true, simulate the data-generating process many times, build the simulated distribution, and see how often the model produces a result as extreme as the one observed. Remember: a surprising result is EVIDENCE to question a model, never proof the model is false; and an ordinary result never proves a model true.

Grade 10·22 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-ic-a-2
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Warm-Up: Models, Chance, and Distributions

These problems review ideas you already know about chance and distributions.

1.

A simulated distribution of the number of heads in 10 flips of a fair coin centers at its expected value. For a fair coin (p=0.5p = 0.5), the expected number of heads in 10 flips is 10×0.510 \times 0.5. About what value does the center of the simulated distribution sit at?