P(2 or 5): Do We Subtract Here?
Roll a fair die. Find
Last lesson we subtracted an overlap. Do we subtract one here?
Think about whether a single roll can be both a 2 and a 5.
Ask First: Can These Both Happen?
Before applying the rule, ask one question:
Can both events happen at once?
- No → no overlap → nothing to subtract
- Yes → overlap exists → subtract it once
Mutually Exclusive Means No Overlap
- A single roll can't be both a 2 and a 5
- These events are mutually exclusive (disjoint)
- Their Venn circles don't touch
No Overlap Means the Overlap Is Zero
If the circles don't touch, there are no shared outcomes:
There is literally nothing in the overlap to subtract.
Apply It: P(2 or 5) = 1/3
The full rule, with a zero overlap:
Same rule as last lesson — the subtracted term is just zero.
Same Rule — The Term Is Just Zero
There is one Addition Rule:
- Overlapping events: subtract a real overlap
- Disjoint events: that term is 0, so you just add
Predict: Is "Heart or Red" Disjoint?
Draw one card. Are "draw a heart" and "draw a red card" mutually exclusive?
- A. Yes — they're separate events
- B. No — they can both happen
Commit to A or B before advancing. This one fools people.
Classify: Which Pairs Can Both Happen?
For a single card draw, decide if each pair is disjoint:
- Draw a king or a queen
- Draw a face card or a heart
Decide each before advancing — then you'll know whether to subtract.
Now Read the Pieces Off a Table
Real "or" questions usually arrive as data in a two-way table.
A table hands you
Next: one table, one "or" query, computed two ways.
Read an "Or" Query From a Table
Find
Same Query by the Addition Rule
From the table's margins and the joint cell:
Both Routes Agree on the Answer
Direct union count and the Addition Rule both give:
- The joint cell is the overlap
- Counting union cells already avoids it; the rule subtracts it
Interpret What the Probability Means
A probability isn't finished until you say what it means:
60% of these students either buy lunch or are seniors (or both).
Always pair the number with a sentence in the model's context.
Your Turn: A Table Query, Two Ways
Using the same table, find
Compute it two ways, then write a one-sentence interpretation.
Direct count and the rule should agree — then say what it means.
Two Common Errors to Watch For
Subtracting when disjoint: removing an overlap that's actually zero
Ask "can both happen?" — if no, just add; there's nothing to subtract.
"Or" means multiply: swapping in the Multiplication Rule
"Or" adds (then subtracts the overlap); "and" multiplies.
Ask "Can Both Happen?" Then Interpret
✓ One rule:
✓ Disjoint → the overlap is 0, so you just add
✓ Tables give every term — always interpret the result
Next: the Multiplication Rule — the "and" companion to this "or" rule.