Back to Explain conditional probability in everyday language — Problem 4 · Task Set 22

Exercises: Explain Conditional Probability and Independence in Everyday Language

Work through each section in order. This standard is about EXPLAINING in
plain words, so several problems ask you to write complete sentences.
Remember: "A given B" and "B given A" are different questions with
different reference groups; "independent" means knowing one tells you
nothing about the other (it is about information, not whether the events
can happen together).

Grade 10·21 problems·~30 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·group·hss-cp-a-5

Work through problems with immediate feedback

Fluency Practice

Identify the conditioning, judge independence, and read the table.

A roulette wheel has landed on red five times in a row. A gambler says, "Black is due now, so black is more likely on the next spin." Is the gambler right?

No — spins are independent, so the next spin is unchanged by the past; black is not more likely.

Yes — after five reds, black must come up to balance the colors.

Yes — long runs always reverse on the next spin.

No — red is now more likely because it is on a streak.